Corporate Earnings & Fundamentals Data: Tracking Company Performance

Why Earnings Data Matters

Corporate earnings drive:

• Stock prices (ultimately)
• Economic health (profits as indicator)
• Tax revenues
• Investment decisions

Even macro analysts need earnings data.

The Earnings Calendar

Reporting Seasons

• Q1: April - May
• Q2: July - August (busiest)
• Q3: October - November
• Q4: January - February (busiest)

Reporting Order

• Banks: First (JPM, BAC typically)

• Tech giants: Mid-season

• Industrials: Mid-season

• Retailers: Late (fiscal calendars)

Key Dates

• Announcement date
• Conference call time
• Filing date (10-Q, 10-K)

Earnings Data Types

Actual Earnings

Reported EPS: What company announced

Types:

• GAAP EPS (official)
• Adjusted/Non-GAAP (management's view)
• Operating EPS

GAAP vs Non-GAAP:

Non-GAAP excludes:

• Restructuring charges
• Stock compensation
• Acquisition costs
• "One-time" items

Earnings Estimates

Consensus: Average of analyst estimates

Range: High, low, median

Number of analysts: Coverage depth

Sources:

• I/B/E/S (Refinitiv)
• FactSet
• Bloomberg
• Visible Alpha

Earnings Surprises

Beat: Actual > Estimate

Miss: Actual < Estimate

Magnitude:

Earnings Revisions

Analysts updating estimates.

Revision ratio: Upgrades / (Upgrades + Downgrades)

• > 50% = Positive sentiment
• < 50% = Negative sentiment

Key Metrics to Track

Per-Share Metrics

• EPS: Earnings per share
• DPS: Dividends per share
• BPS: Book value per share
• SPS: Sales per share

Growth Rates

• YoY EPS growth: Year-over-year
• Sequential growth: Quarter-over-quarter
• CAGR: Multi-year compound growth

Margins

• Gross margin: (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
• Operating margin: Operating income / Revenue
• Net margin: Net income / Revenue
• EBITDA margin: EBITDA / Revenue

Returns

• ROE: Return on equity (Net income / Equity)
• ROA: Return on assets (Net income / Assets)
• ROIC: Return on invested capital

Guidance and Outlook

Types of Guidance

• Point estimate: Specific target
• Range: High-low bounds
• Qualitative: Directional only

What Companies Guide

• Revenue
• EPS
• Margins
• Capital expenditure
• Free cash flow

Guidance Changes

• Raised: Bullish signal
• Lowered: Bearish signal
• Withdrawn: Uncertainty (concerning)

Aggregate Earnings Data

S&P 500 Earnings

Sources:

• S&P Dow Jones Indices
• FactSet Earnings Insight
• Yardeni Research (free)

Metrics:

• Total S&P 500 EPS
• Operating EPS vs Reported
• YoY growth rate

Sector Earnings

Track by GICS sector:

• Which sectors growing/declining
• Margin trends by sector
• Revision trends

National Corporate Profits

FRED Series: CP | IQ Score: 94

BEA measure of economy-wide profits.

• Quarterly, lagged
• Includes all corporations

Data Sources

Free Sources

SEC EDGAR:

• All 10-K, 10-Q filings
• Earnings releases (8-K)
• Proxy statements

Yahoo Finance:

• Earnings dates
• Historical EPS
• Analyst estimates

Earnings Whispers:

• Earnings calendar
• Whisper numbers

Yardeni Research:

• S&P 500 aggregate data
• Forward earnings
• Free charts

Premium Sources

FactSet:

• Earnings Insight (weekly)
• Detailed company data
• Aggregates

Refinitiv/I/B/E/S:

• Estimates database
• Revisions
• Global coverage

Bloomberg:

• Everything
• Real-time estimates
• Guidance tracking

Capital IQ:

• Fundamentals database
• Transcripts
• Estimates

Earnings Season Analysis

Before Season

• Expectations check (beat rate, expected growth)

• Valuation setup (P/E, forward P/E)

• Sector positioning

During Season

• Beat rate: % of companies beating

• Average surprise: How much beats/misses

• Guide rate: % raising vs lowering

• Sector themes: What's working?

Historical Beat Rates

Normal: 65-75% beat rate

• Higher = low bar, analyst sandbagging
• Lower = genuine weakness

Earnings Signals

Positive Signals

• Beats + raised guidance
• Margin expansion
• Strong revenue growth
• Positive revisions

Negative Signals

• Beat on cost cuts only
• Revenue miss
• Lowered guidance
• Margin compression

Leading Indicators

• Bellwether companies (FDX, CAT, tech giants)
• Industry leaders report trends
• Supply chain commentary

Building an Earnings Dashboard

Weekly (During Season)

• Reporting calendar

• Beat rates to date

• Surprise magnitudes

• Guidance trends

• Revision trends

Quarterly

• Aggregate EPS (S&P 500)

• Sector rankings

• Margin trends

• Forward estimates

Annual

• Full-year EPS

• 5-year CAGR

• Margin evolution

• ROE trends

Pro Tips

• Revenue matters: Harder to manipulate than EPS

• Margins tell stories: Operating leverage, pricing power

• Guidance > beat/miss: Forward look more important

• Revisions predict returns: Follow estimate momentum

• Conference calls matter: Commentary beyond numbers

• Non-GAAP scrutiny: Understand adjustments

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