Emerging Markets Data: GDP, Inflation & Economic Indicators by Country

The EM Data Challenge

Emerging market data differs from developed markets:

• Lower frequency
• More revisions
• Quality concerns
• Political interference
• Shorter history

But EM matters: ~40% of global GDP.

Major EM Countries: Data Sources

China

See separate China data guide

Key sources:

• National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
• People's Bank of China (PBoC)
• Customs Administration

Data quality concern: GDP smoothing, industrial data

India

Central Statistics Office:

• GDP (quarterly, with 2-month lag)
• IIP (Industrial Production)
• CPI/WPI inflation
• IQ Score: 87

Reserve Bank of India:

• Monetary data
• Financial sector
• External sector

Key releases:

• GDP: May, August, November, February
• CPI: 12th of each month
• Trade: 15th of each month

Brazil

IBGE (Statistics Institute):

• GDP
• CPI (IPCA)
• Industrial production
• Retail sales
• IQ Score: 90

Banco Central do Brasil:

• SELIC rate
• Credit data
• Balance of payments

Key releases:

• GDP: ~60 days after quarter
• IPCA: ~10th of month
• Industrial production: Mid-month

Mexico

INEGI:

• GDP
• CPI
• Industrial production
• Employment
• IQ Score: 91

Banco de México:

• Interest rates
• Foreign reserves
• Survey expectations

Russia

Rosstat:

• GDP
• Industrial production
• CPI
• IQ Score: 78 (political concerns)

Central Bank of Russia:

• Policy rate
• Balance of payments
• Reserves

Note: Sanctions period affects data availability and reliability.

South Korea

Statistics Korea (KOSTAT):

• GDP (advanced)
• CPI, PPI
• Trade
• IQ Score: 94

Bank of Korea:

• Monetary policy
• Financial data
• Excellent English availability

Actually developed market quality, often classified EM.

Indonesia

BPS Statistics:

• GDP
• CPI
• Trade
• IQ Score: 85

Bank Indonesia:

• Policy rate
• Reserves
• Balance of payments

Turkey

TurkStat:

• GDP
• CPI
• Trade
• IQ Score: 75 (methodology concerns)

CBRT (Central Bank):

• Policy rate
• Reserves
• Credit

Concern: Inflation data credibility

South Africa

Stats SA:

• GDP
• CPI
• Manufacturing
• IQ Score: 89

South African Reserve Bank:

• Monetary policy
• Financial stability

Poland

GUS (Statistics Poland):

• GDP
• CPI
• Industrial production
• IQ Score: 92

NBP (Central Bank):

• Policy rate
• Balance of payments

High-quality data (EU standards).

Multi-Country EM Data Sources

IMF

World Economic Outlook (WEO):

• Forecasts for all countries
• Historical data
• Biannual (April, October)
• IQ Score: 93

International Financial Statistics:

• Standardized country data
• Monetary, fiscal, external

Article IV Reports:

• Country deep dives
• Data appendices
• Policy analysis

World Bank

World Development Indicators:

• Long-run series
• Comparable across countries
• Development focus

Global Economic Monitor:

• Higher frequency
• More current
• Selected indicators

Institute of International Finance (IIF)

EM capital flows data:

• Portfolio flows
• Non-resident capital
• Debt flows

Subscription required.

CEIC / Haver Analytics

Comprehensive EM databases:

• All major EMs
• High frequency where available
• Standardized formatting
• IQ Score: 92-94

Premium sources, expensive.

EM-Specific Indicators

FX Reserves

Critical for EM stability.

Watch for:

• Reserve adequacy (months of imports)
• Intervention patterns
• Valuation effects

Current Account

Funding vulnerability.

Key metric: % of GDP

• Deficit > 3%: Watch closely
• Deficit > 5%: Concern

External Debt

Total and composition.

Key ratios:

• Debt/GDP
• Debt/Exports
• Short-term/Reserves

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)

Currency valuation.

• Overvalued = vulnerability
• Undervalued = competitiveness

EM Composite Indices

EM PMIs

Sources:

• S&P Global (covers major EMs)
• HSBC/Markit
• Country-specific (China Caixin)

EM Credit Spreads

JPMorgan EMBI:

• Sovereign spreads
• Available via Bloomberg/FRED

EM Equities

MSCI EM Index:

• Stock market aggregate
• Country weights

EM Currencies

• JPMorgan EM Currency Index
• Bloomberg EM FX Index

Data Quality Issues

Political Interference

Some countries adjust data:

• Argentina (pre-2015)
• Venezuela
• Turkey (concerns)

Methodology Changes

Frequent changes in:

• GDP base years
• CPI baskets
• Survey coverage

Timeliness

Revision Magnitudes

EM revisions larger:

• Initial GDP often off by 0.5-1.0 pp
• Historical revisions common

Building EM Dashboards

Monthly Monitoring

• Inflation (CPI)

• Trade balance

• FX reserves changes

• PMIs (where available)

Quarterly

• GDP growth

• Current account

• External debt

• Credit growth

Risk Monitoring

• FX volatility

• Credit spreads (EMBI)

• Capital flow data

• Policy rate changes

Pro Tips

• Trust but verify: Cross-check with alternative sources

• Know the calendars: EM release timing varies

• Watch revisions: More meaningful than initial prints

• IMF/WB as backstop: When local data suspect

• Currency matters: Local vs USD-adjusted

• Politics is economics: Elections, policy shifts

Explore emerging markets data →