Industrial Production Data: Fed, Census & Manufacturing Output
Guide to industrial production and manufacturing data from the Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, and international sources.
Industrial Production Overview
Industrial production measures output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. While manufacturing is only ~11% of GDP, it's highly cyclical and often leads broader economic trends.
Federal Reserve Industrial Production
IP Index
IQ Score: 97 | Monthly | 1919-present
The definitive measure of US industrial output.
Key Series:
- INDPRO: Total Industrial Production
- IPMANSICS: Manufacturing
- IPMINE: Mining
- IPUTIL: Utilities
Capacity Utilization
IQ Score: 96 | Monthly | 1967-present
How much of industrial capacity is being used.
Series: TCU (Total Capacity Utilization)
Interpretation:
- >80%: Economy running hot, inflation pressure
- 75-80%: Healthy utilization
- <75%: Slack in the economy, disinflation
Browse industrial production data →
Census Bureau Manufacturing
Factory Orders
IQ Score: 95 | Monthly | 1992-present
Total value of new orders received by manufacturers.
Series: AMTMNO (Manufacturers' New Orders: Total)
Durable Goods Orders
IQ Score: 96 | Monthly | 1992-present
Orders for goods lasting 3+ years.
Key Series:
- DGORDER: Total Durable Goods
- NEWORDER: Core Capital Goods (ex defense, aircraft)
Core capital goods = business investment proxy.
Shipments & Inventories
- Shipments: AMTMVS
- Inventories: AMTMTI
- I/S Ratio: AMTMIS (Inventories-to-Shipments)
Rising I/S ratio = potential production cutbacks ahead.
Sector-Specific Data
Auto Production
- DAUPSA: Domestic Auto Production (Annual Rate)
- Highly volatile, big impact on headline manufacturing
Semiconductor Production
Fed's semiconductor production index tracks this critical sector.
Steel Production
American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) weekly data.
International Industrial Data
Eurostat
IQ Score: 93 | Monthly
EU industrial production by country and sector.
OECD
IQ Score: 92 | Monthly
Harmonized industrial production for OECD members.
China
- Official NBS Industrial Production (government)
- Caixin PMI (private, covers small firms)
IP vs PMI vs GDP
| Indicator | What It Tells You | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| ISM PMI | Direction, sentiment | Leading |
| Industrial Production | Actual output | Coincident |
| GDP | Broad economy | Lagging |
PMI predicts IP; IP explains GDP.
Regional Manufacturing
Fed District Surveys
Each Federal Reserve bank publishes regional manufacturing surveys:
- Empire State: NY manufacturing (earliest release)
- Philly Fed: Mid-Atlantic
- Dallas Fed: Texas (energy-heavy)
- Richmond Fed: Southeast
- Kansas City Fed: Central US
- Chicago PMI: Midwest manufacturing
These release before national ISM and can preview trends.
Cyclicality of Manufacturing
Manufacturing is highly cyclical:
- Expansion: Production grows faster than GDP
- Recession: Manufacturing contracts more severely
- Recovery: Manufacturing leads the rebound
This makes manufacturing data valuable for cycle timing.
Inventory Cycle
The Pattern
- Sales rise → production rises → inventories built
- Sales slow → production cuts → inventories drawn down
- Inventories low → production rises again
What to Watch
- Inventory-to-sales ratios
- New orders vs shipments
- PMI inventories component
Pro Tips
- IP for hard data: Most accurate measure of factory output
- Capacity utilization for inflation: Key Fed input
- Core capital goods for investment: Filters out volatile items
- Watch autos: Can swing headline numbers dramatically
- I/S ratio rising: Production cuts likely ahead
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