Real Estate Data Deep Dive: Housing Starts, Permits, Sales & Prices

Why Housing Data Matters

Housing is a critical macro sector:

• ~15-18% of GDP (including renovation and brokerage)
• Interest rate sensitive
• Wealth effect on consumption
• Labor market impact
• Leading indicator properties

Construction Data

Housing Starts

FRED Series: HOUST | IQ Score: 96

New residential construction begun.

Components:

• Single-family (HOUST1F)
• Multi-family (2-4 units, 5+ units)

Release: ~17th of month for prior month (Census)

What it tells you:

• Builder confidence
• Future supply pipeline
• Economic activity (jobs, materials)

Historical context:

Building Permits

FRED Series: PERMIT | IQ Score: 96

Authorization for new construction.

Why it leads starts:

• Permits come before construction
• ~1-2 month lead on starts
• Forward-looking

Housing Completions

FRED Series: COMPUTSA | IQ Score: 94

Units finished and ready for occupancy.

• Lags starts by 6-12 months
• Reflects supply actually hitting market

Months Supply of New Houses

FRED Series: MSACSR | IQ Score: 93

Inventory divided by sales pace.

Interpretation:

Home Sales Data

New Home Sales

FRED Series: HSN1F | IQ Score: 95

Sales of newly constructed homes.

Why it matters:

• More volatile than existing
• Leading indicator
• Reflects builder activity

Existing Home Sales

Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR)

FRED Series: EXHOSLUSM495S | IQ Score: 93

Resales of previously owned homes.

Volume: ~90% of housing transactions

Release: ~3 weeks after month-end

Key metrics:

• Sales pace (SAAR)
• Inventory (months supply)
• Median price
• Days on market

Pending Home Sales

FRED Series: PHSI | IQ Score: 92

Contracts signed but not yet closed.

• Leads existing sales by 1-2 months
• Forward-looking indicator

House Price Indices

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller

FRED Series: CSUSHPINSA | IQ Score: 96

The gold standard for house prices.

Variants:

• National index
• 20-city composite
• 10-city composite
• Individual metro areas

Methodology:

• Repeat sales
• Same-home comparisons
• 2-month lag

FHFA House Price Index

FRED Series: USSTHPI | IQ Score: 95

Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Coverage: Conforming mortgages only

Advantage: Longer history, less volatile

Disadvantage: Excludes cash sales, jumbos

Zillow/Redfin Data

Private sources with:

• Higher frequency
• More granular geography
• Listing data (not just sold)
• IQ Score: 90-91

Mortgage Data

Mortgage Rates

FRED Series: MORTGAGE30US | IQ Score: 97

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Weekly release: Thursdays

Coverage: Conventional 30-year fixed

Related rates:

• 15-year fixed: MORTGAGE15US
• 5/1 ARM: MORTGAGE5US

Mortgage Applications

Source: MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)

IQ Score: 93

Components:

• Purchase applications (demand)
• Refinance applications (rate sensitivity)
• Market composite

Why it matters:

• Weekly data (high frequency)
• Leads sales by 4-6 weeks
• Rate sensitivity gauge

Mortgage Originations

Quarterly data on:

• Volume by type (purchase, refi, cash-out)
• Credit quality (FICO, LTV)
• Product mix (ARM vs fixed)

Affordability Metrics

NAR Affordability Index

IQ Score: 91

100 = median income can afford median home.

Components:

• Median home price
• Median family income
• Prevailing mortgage rate

Price-to-Income Ratio

Home price divided by annual income.

Historical average: ~3-4x

Current: Often 5-7x in hot markets

Price-to-Rent Ratio

Buy vs rent economics.

High ratio = expensive to buy relative to renting.

Regional Housing Data

Metro-Level Data

Case-Shiller covers 20 metros:

• New York, Los Angeles, Chicago
• Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix
• Regional dynamics differ!

State-Level Construction

Census provides permits and starts by state.

Watch for regional divergence.

Local MLS Data

Most granular:

• County/city level
• Real-time listings
• Often requires subscription

Housing Cycle Analysis

Leading Indicators

• Mortgage rates (inverse relationship)

• Building permits (supply pipeline)

• Pending sales (demand)

• MBA purchase applications

Coincident Indicators

• Housing starts

• Existing/new home sales

• Home prices

Lagging Indicators

• Completions

• Delinquency rates

• Foreclosures

Cycle Timing

Housing often leads the business cycle:

• Downturn: Housing slows 12-18 months before recession
• Recovery: Housing bottoms before economy

Building a Housing Dashboard

Weekly

• Mortgage rates (MORTGAGE30US)

• MBA applications (purchase + refi)

Monthly

• Housing starts (HOUST)

• Building permits (PERMIT)

• New/existing home sales

• Pending home sales

Quarterly/Annual

• Case-Shiller prices (lagged)

• FHFA prices

• Affordability indices

• Inventory levels

Pro Tips

• Rates drive everything: 100bp rate change = major impact

• Permits lead starts: Watch permits for early signal

• Inventory is key: Low inventory = price support

• Regional matters: National data hides variation

• Seasonal adjustment: Raw data very seasonal

• Credit conditions: Mortgage availability affects demand

Explore housing data →