Advanced Insights

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

FRED • Monthly

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What's Included in Advanced Insights

Real-time percentile rankings

Distance from mean (±X.X σ)

Historical analogs with exact dates

Lead/lag correlations with coefficients

Surprise analysis vs consensus

Transmission channel mapping

Red flags & watch points

Five canonical applications

Correlation matrix with FRED codes

Cycle position analysis

Data health & confidence scoring

Analyst-grade quality caveats

Know exactly where current values stand vs. historical data

Discover timing relationships with other indicators

4-6 high-conviction joinable series with exact codes

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