Deflation Probability

This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/). As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a mor