A Fed rate tracker monitors the Federal Reserve's target interest rate (federal funds rate), FOMC meeting schedule, and rate change projections (dot plot). Track daily effective fed funds rate and policy decisions from Federal Reserve data. Free to use. No credit card required.
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Current Fed stance and economic trends
Neutral
Real rate: +1.17%
Moderate
CPI: 2.7% YoY
Stable
Unemployment: 4.2%
Outlook: Balanced conditions suggest Fed likely to hold rates steady near-term.
65% probability
days away
January 27-28, 2026
Expected Cut
-25bp
New Target Range
3.50% – 3.75%
This prediction may change as new economic data becomes available
A 25bp cut affects your personal finances
Variable APR cards
on $10,000 balance
Record-high APRs for households
30-year fixed rates
on $400K loan
Higher financing costs for buyers
💡 Refinance Timeline
Break-even in ~0-1 months
Based on typical $2.5K-$3.5K closing costs
New car financing
on $35,000 loan
Highest auto financing costs in 15 years
Variable rate loans
on $50,000 balance
Private loans track Fed policy
High-yield savings
on $25,000 saved
High-yield accounts remain attractive
Your Projected Savings Over 12 Months
$625
Lower borrowing costs on typical loans
Through
Dec 2026
Note: Estimates assume typical scenarios. Actual impact varies by lender, credit score, and loan terms. Fed rate changes typically take 1-3 months to fully affect consumer rates. Savings assume average loan balances.
30-year fixed correlation analysis
Based on 20-year correlation between Fed rate cuts and mortgage yield adjustments
High growth equity sensitivity
Correlation Breakdown: Rate cuts typically boost tech multiples by 15-25% within 6 months...
Upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions
1 month
January 27-28, 2026
January 27-28, 2026
1 month away
65%
Est. probability
March 17-18, 2026
2 months away
58%
Est. probability
Projections
Q1 projections with updated economic outlook
April 28-29, 2026
4 months away
68%
Est. probability
June 16-17, 2026
5 months away
45%
Est. probability
Projections
Mid-year projections
July 28-29, 2026
7 months away
62%
Est. probability
September 15-16, 2026
8 months away
38%
Est. probability
Projections
Q3 projections
Market Expectations
Probabilities based on inflation trends, unemployment data, and Fed guidance. Higher probability indicates stronger market consensus.
SEP Meetings
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) includes the famous "dot plot" showing Fed officials' rate forecasts. Released quarterly.
The market and Federal Reserve have significantly different expectations for rates by June 2026
3.25%
Based on futures pricing
Difference
25bp
Fed higher
3.50%
From latest dot plot
The Fed sees rates staying 25bp higher than what markets are pricing in. This suggests either the Fed is more hawkish on inflation, or markets are betting on a recession forcing the Fed to cut more aggressively.
Fed rate minus inflation
3.88% Fed rate - 2.7% CPI
Restrictive Territory
Positive real rates slow economic growth and reduce inflation pressure
Market prediction track record
Market correctly predicted 9 of 12 meetings
Recent Surprises
• Sept '24: Surprise 50bp cut (expected 25bp)
• Mar '25: Held when market priced 60% cut
• June '24: Hawkish hold surprised markets
Current policy regime
Last pivot: Sept 2024 at 5.50%
Typical Cycle
6
Meetings
150bp
Total Move
