Fiscal Policy Data: Government Budgets, Deficits & Debt Analysis

Why Fiscal Data Matters

Government fiscal policy affects:

• Interest rates (Treasury supply)
• Economic growth (spending, taxes)
• Inflation (demand impact)
• Currency (deficit financing)
• Bond markets (supply/demand)

Key Fiscal Metrics

Budget Balance

Deficit: Spending > Revenue (negative)

Surplus: Revenue > Spending (positive)

FRED Series: FYFSD | IQ Score: 95

Historical context (% of GDP):

National Debt

Total Public Debt:

FRED Series: GFDEBTN | IQ Score: 96

Components:

• Debt held by public (markets)
• Intragovernmental holdings (trust funds)

Debt-to-GDP (GFDEGDQ188S):

Currently ~120%+ (historically high)

Primary Balance

Budget balance excluding interest payments.

Shows underlying fiscal stance.

Primary deficit = Overall deficit - Interest payments

Revenue Data

Federal Revenue

FRED Series: FGRECPT | IQ Score: 94

Major sources:

• Individual income tax (~50%)
• Payroll taxes (~35%)
• Corporate income tax (~10%)
• Other (tariffs, excise, etc.)

Revenue as % of GDP

Historical average: ~17-18% of GDP

Stable despite tax changes (bracket creep)

Monthly Treasury Statement

Release: 8th business day of month

Source: Treasury Department

Shows:

• Monthly receipts by source
• Monthly outlays by category
• Cumulative fiscal year totals

Spending Data

Federal Spending Categories

Mandatory (~65%):

• Social Security
• Medicare
• Medicaid
• Other entitlements

Discretionary (~30%):

• Defense
• Non-defense (agencies)

Interest (~10% and rising):

• Net interest on debt

Spending Trends

FRED Series: FGEXPND | IQ Score: 94

Spending as % of GDP:

• Historical average: ~20-21%
• Recent: 23-25%+ (elevated)

Transfer Payments

Government payments to individuals.

FRED Series: W823RC1 | IQ Score: 94

Countercyclical (rises in recession).

Treasury Data Sources

Daily Treasury Statement

IQ Score: 95

Daily cash position of US Government.

• Opening/closing balance
• Deposits and withdrawals
• Debt transactions

Monthly Treasury Statement

IQ Score: 96

Detailed monthly budget data.

• Receipts by source
• Outlays by agency/function
• Public debt

Treasury Bulletin

Quarterly comprehensive data.

• Ownership of debt
• Interest rates
• Detailed breakdowns

TreasuryDirect

Public debt data:

• Total outstanding
• Composition (bills, notes, bonds)
• By type (marketable, non-marketable)

CBO Resources

Congressional Budget Office

Budget and Economic Outlook (Annual/Updates):

• 10-year projections
• Revenue and spending estimates
• Deficit forecasts

Monthly Budget Review:

• Current fiscal year tracking
• Comparison to prior year
• Full-year estimates

Long-Term Budget Outlook:

• 30-year projections
• Entitlement sustainability
• Interest cost trajectory

IQ Score: 95 (non-partisan, high quality)

Debt Dynamics

Interest Expense

FRED Series: A091RC1Q027SBEA | IQ Score: 94

Interest on the national debt.

Rising as:

• Debt levels increase
• Interest rates rise
• Short-term debt refinances

Debt Composition

Weighted Average Maturity

How long until debt refinances.

• Shorter = More rate sensitivity
• Longer = Locked in rates

Debt Held by Fed

Fed holdings of Treasuries.

QE impact on effective debt held by public.

Fiscal Indicators

Fiscal Impulse

Change in cyclically adjusted deficit.

• Positive = Fiscal stimulus
• Negative = Fiscal drag

Automatic Stabilizers

Built-in countercyclical features:

• Unemployment insurance
• Progressive taxes
• Welfare programs

Deficits rise automatically in recession.

Structural vs Cyclical Deficit

Cyclical: Due to economic conditions

Structural: Would exist at full employment

CBO provides these estimates.

State and Local Fiscal Data

Census Bureau

State government finances:

• Annual survey
• Revenue and spending
• Debt levels

Municipal Bond Data

State/local borrowing costs:

• Bloomberg indices
• Yield spreads

Building a Fiscal Dashboard

Monthly

• Monthly Treasury Statement (when released)

• Daily cash balance tracking

• CBO Monthly Review

Quarterly

• Debt levels update

• Interest expense trajectory

• Revenue growth vs spending

Annual

• CBO Budget Outlook

• Debt-to-GDP update

• Long-term projections

Fiscal Policy and Markets

Treasury Supply Impact

Large deficits = More Treasury issuance

• Upward pressure on yields
• Crowding out (theoretically)

Fiscal Dominance Risk

When debt so large that:

• Fed constrained in raising rates
• Inflation potentially accommodated
• Policy conflicts

Rating Agency Views

• Moody's, S&P, Fitch ratings
• US downgrade history (2011, 2023)
• Outlook assessments

Pro Tips

• CBO is essential: Non-partisan, rigorous

• Watch interest costs: The growing problem

• Deficits normalized: Don't overreact

• Structural matters: Cyclical deficits self-correcting

• State budgets differ: Balanced budget requirements

• Quarterly refunding: Treasury announcement matters

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