Government Debt & Deficit Data: Treasury, CBO & Fiscal Statistics

Understanding Fiscal Data

Government debt and deficits are crucial for bond markets, economic policy, and long-term growth analysis. Here's where to find authoritative data.

Key Concepts

Deficit vs Debt

• Deficit: Annual shortfall (spending > revenue)
• Debt: Total accumulated borrowing

Debt Measures

• Gross Debt: All Treasury securities outstanding
• Debt Held by Public: Excludes intragovernmental holdings
• Net Debt: Debt minus financial assets

Debt held by public is most economically meaningful.

Primary Data Sources

Treasury Daily Statement

IQ Score: 98 | Daily | 1998-present

Real-time fiscal data from Treasury.

What It Shows:

• Daily cash receipts and outlays
• Debt outstanding
• Cash balance

Use For:

• High-frequency fiscal tracking
• Debt ceiling monitoring
• Cash flow analysis

Monthly Treasury Statement

IQ Score: 97 | Monthly | 1981-present

Official monthly budget figures.

Series:

• FGRECPT: Federal Receipts
• FGEXPND: Federal Outlays
• FYFSD: Federal Surplus/Deficit

Browse fiscal data →

Bureau of Fiscal Service

Detailed debt composition data:

• Marketable vs non-marketable
• By security type (bills, notes, bonds, TIPS)
• Foreign holdings (via TIC data)

CBO Projections

Congressional Budget Office

IQ Score: 94 | Semi-annual

Gold standard for fiscal projections.

Key Reports:

• Budget and Economic Outlook (January/February)
• Updated projections (typically May)
• Long-term budget outlook (annual)

What CBO Provides:

• 10-year deficit projections
• 30-year long-term scenarios
• Policy cost estimates

Understanding CBO Baselines

• Current Law: Assumes no policy changes
• Current Policy: Assumes expiring provisions extended

Big difference for projections!

Federal Reserve Data

FRED Fiscal Series

IQ Score: 96

Key government finance series:

• GFDEBTN: Federal Debt: Total Public Debt
• GFDEGDQ188S: Debt to GDP Ratio
• FYONET: Federal Net Outlays
• FYFRGDA188S: Receipts to GDP Ratio

Z.1 Financial Accounts

Detailed government balance sheet data, updated quarterly.

International Comparisons

IMF Fiscal Monitor

IQ Score: 92 | Semi-annual

Global government debt and deficit data:

• General government debt (broader than federal)
• Primary balance
• Cyclically-adjusted balance

OECD Government at a Glance

IQ Score: 91

Standardized fiscal indicators for comparison.

Eurostat

IQ Score: 93

EU government debt and deficit under Maastricht definitions.

Debt Sustainability Metrics

Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Most common metric. US currently ~120% of GDP (gross) or ~100% (held by public).

Interest-to-Revenue Ratio

Share of revenue going to interest payments. Rising rapidly.

Primary Balance

Deficit excluding interest payments. Shows underlying fiscal position.

r - g

Real interest rate minus growth rate. If r > g, debt dynamics unstable.

Market-Related Data

Treasury Auction Results

IQ Score: 95

Real-time auction data:

• Bid-to-cover ratios
• Yields
• Foreign participation

TIC Data (Treasury International Capital)

IQ Score: 94 | Monthly

Foreign holdings of Treasury securities by country.

Key for understanding:

• Foreign demand for Treasuries
• Dollar reserve status
• China/Japan holdings

What to Watch

Short-Term

• Monthly deficit/surplus
• Debt ceiling status
• Auction demand

Medium-Term

• CBO projections vs actual
• Interest expense trajectory
• Debt-to-GDP path

Long-Term

• Entitlement spending growth
• Healthcare cost trends
• Demographic pressures

Pro Tips

• Use debt held by public: Most meaningful measure

• Watch interest expense: Fastest-growing budget item

• CBO for projections: Most credible, nonpartisan

• Primary balance matters: Shows true fiscal effort

• Mind the cycle: Deficits naturally rise in recessions

Explore all fiscal data →